Naive average release cycles mispredict AI launches by 2 to 4 weeks because they ignore whether a lab is compressing (Google at 14d, OpenAI at 18d, Meta at -24.5d/drop) or stretching (xAI at +4d/drop). Below is the live 35-day release horizon and buyer's verdict across all six frontier labs.
📅 35-DAY FRONTIER DROP HORIZON (NOV 4 – DEC 9, 2026) · Ranked by Imminence■ Imminent (1–10d) ■ Gate Unlock (7–17d) ■ Mid-Month Wave
LAB & TARGET RELEASE
Today (Nov 4)Nov 12Nov 20Nov 28Dec 8
TREND-SLOPE WINDOW
xAIGrok 4.8 / Grok 5 Preview
Nov 5 – Nov 12, 2026
Google DeepMindGemini 4 Carbon (Broad Ultimate GA)
Nov 11 – Nov 21, 2026
OpenAIGPT-6 Rosalind / GPT-6.2 Shipmas
Nov 13 – Nov 20, 2026
DeepSeekDeepSeek R3 / V4.5 (MIT Open Weights)
Nov 14 – Nov 24, 2026
Meta GenAIMuse Glimmer / Llama 5 Preview
Nov 19 – Nov 26, 2026
AnthropicClaude 5.6 / Mythos 5.5 Wave
Nov 28 – Dec 8, 2026
Most Imminent Drop
Grok 4.8 / 5.0
Nov 5 – Nov 12 (44 of 45d expanding cycle elapsed · 98%)
Next In Antigravity Ultimate
Gemini 4 Carbon
Nov 11 – Nov 21 (14–21d after Oct 28 Fairwind rollout)
Flat Mean vs Slope Cycle:34d flat avg vs 45d trend
Active Forecast Window:Nov 5 – Nov 12, 2026 (1–8d away)
Signal Confidence:91% Confidence (Linear RL Scaling Pattern)
xAI's release intervals are expanding linearly (+3d, +4d, +5d) as each Colossus II post-training run scales compute. A naive 34-day average falsely says Grok is overdue, while the linear trend (45d from Sep 21) lands Nov 5–12. Do not lock in long-term Grok 4.7 fine-tunes this week.
Evidence & Pre-Release Signals (2)
Cadence Physics: 28d → 31d → 35d → 40d sequence fits a linear +4d/drop expansion (R² = 0.99), projecting Day 45 on Nov 5.
API Signal: xAI router staging endpoints added new reasoning-effort quantization parameters in late October.
Arena Elo1496
SWE-bench76.8%
GPQA Sci92.4%
API $/1M$2.80
Google DeepMind · Antigravity Ultimate & Vertex AI
Gemini 4 Argon (Live) & Carbon
3.8 Flash (Sep 2) → 3.8 Live (Sep 15) → 4 Argon Pre (Sep 30) → 4 Argon GA (Oct 13) → 4 Carbon Fairwind (Oct 28)
ADOPT ARGON NOW · CARBON IN 7–17d
8dsince Carbon Fairwind (22d since Argon GA)
Accelerating: 14d Pulse
Interval Trend → Next: 16d
2026 Drops:3.8 (54d)Live (13d)Argon Pre (15d)Argon GA (13d)Carbon (15d)44%
Next Expected Release:Gemini 4 Carbon (Broad Ultimate GA)
Flat Mean vs Slope Cycle:38d flat avg vs 18d trend
Active Forecast Window:Nov 11 – Nov 21, 2026 (7–17d away)
Signal Confidence:94% Confidence (Confirmed Fairwind Gate)
Since September 2, DeepMind has shifted from 54-day gaps to a relentless 13-to-15-day heartbeat. Argon took 13 days from Sep 30 preview to Oct 13 Ultimate GA; Carbon entered its Fairwind cyber rollout Oct 28 and is on track to hit Ultimate between Nov 11 and Nov 21.
Evidence & Pre-Release Signals (2)
Preview-to-GA Precedent: Gemini 4 Argon went from Sep 30 preview to Oct 13 Antigravity Ultimate GA in 13 days.
Fairwind Safety Gate: Google's 3.8 Flash Cyber (Sep 2) and Anthropic's Mythos 5.1 both unlocked to broad GA in 21 days.
Arena Elo1518
SWE-bench82.6%
GPQA Sci94.8%
API $/1M$2 / $10
OpenAI · Modular Point-Release Wave
GPT-6 Astra, 6.1 Sol & 6.1 Terra
6 Astra (Sep 3) → 6 Sol/Luna (Sep 22) → 6.1 Sol (Sep 29) → ChatGPT GA (Oct 7) → 6.1 Terra (Oct 26)
POINT WAVE · NEXT IN 9–16d
10dsince 6.1 Terra (36d since 6.1 Sol)
Accelerating: 18d Pulse
Interval Trend → Next: 18d
2026 Drops:Astra (76d)Sol (19d)6.1 Sol (7d)GA (8d)6.1 Terra (19d)53%
Next Expected Release:GPT-6 Rosalind / GPT-6.2 Shipmas
Flat Mean vs Slope Cycle:26d flat avg vs 19d trend
Active Forecast Window:Nov 13 – Nov 20, 2026 (9–16d away)
Signal Confidence:86% Confidence (18d Modular Cadence)
OpenAI replaced monolithic quarterly releases with specialized point drops every ~18 days (Astra for science, Sol for fast coding, Terra for tool use). Adopt 6.1 Sol/Terra via API today, but expect GPT-6 Rosalind / 6.2 in the Nov 13–20 window.
Evidence & Pre-Release Signals (2)
Post-September Cadence: 5 distinct releases in 53 days (19d → 7d → 8d → 19d intervals).
2026 Drops:V4 (68d)V4 Pro (13d)V4.1 (28d)Silence (55d+)86%
Next Expected Release:DeepSeek R3 / V4.5 (MIT Open Weights)
Flat Mean vs Slope Cycle:36d flat avg vs 65d trend
Active Forecast Window:Nov 14 – Nov 24, 2026 (10–20d away)
Signal Confidence:88% Confidence (65d Structural Wave)
DeepSeek ships in 2-step point bursts (13d → 28d) followed by a ~65-day quiet period before its next architecture leap (mirroring the 68d pause before V4). At 55 days of silence, use V4.1 Flash ($0.22/1M) via API today, but hold permanent H200 GPU reservations for R3.
Evidence & Pre-Release Signals (2)
Structural Silence Indicator: Widening gap (13d → 28d → 55d) matches the pre-V4 68-day architecture compilation window.
vLLM / SGLang PR Activity: New MLA-v3 kernel optimizations merged upstream in late October.
Arena Elo1504
SWE-bench79.5%
GPQA Sci91.8%
API $/1M$0.22
Meta GenAI · Compressing Muse & Llama Open Cadence
Next Expected Release:Muse Glimmer / Llama 5 Preview
Flat Mean vs Slope Cycle:63d flat avg vs 35d trend
Active Forecast Window:Nov 19 – Nov 26, 2026 (15–22d away)
Signal Confidence:82% Confidence (Damped Compression)
Meta cut its release interval more than in half across 2026 (92d → 55d → 43d). While a flat 63-day average points to mid-December, damped slope extrapolation places Muse Glimmer / Llama 5 Preview right before Thanksgiving (Nov 19–26).
Evidence & Pre-Release Signals (2)
Interval Halving: -24.5d/drop slope is the steepest compression among open-weight frontier labs.
Open-Weight Ecosystem: Oct 15 Muse Spark Open weights now supported across Together, Fireworks, and RunPod.
Next Expected Release:Claude 5.6 / Mythos 5.5 Wave
Flat Mean vs Slope Cycle:78d flat avg vs 52d trend
Active Forecast Window:Nov 28 – Dec 8, 2026 (24–34d away)
Signal Confidence:92% Confidence (Bimodal Wave Model)
Anthropic ships in tight 21-day bursts separated by a compressing inter-wave pause (94d → 63d → ~52d). With the entire 5.5 trio (Opus, Sonnet, Haiku) freshly completed in October and leading SWE-bench (84.2%), you have a clean ~30-day runway to adopt now.
Evidence & Pre-Release Signals (2)
Exact 21-Day Gated-to-GA Law: Fable/Mythos 5 (Jun 9 → Jun 30) and 5.1 (Sep 1 → Sep 22) both unlocked in 21 days.
Suite Complete: All three tiers (Opus 5.5, Sonnet 5.5, Haiku 5.5) are live—no mid-wave disruption expected until late Nov.
Arena Elo1524
SWE-bench84.2%
GPQA Sci94.1%
API $/1M$6.00
VERIFIED PRE-RELEASE TELEMETRY & RUMOR LOG
Why 4 Models Are Converging on November 5 – November 26, 2026
Carbon launched in gated Fairwind cyber preview on Oct 28. Both Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber (Sep 2 → Sep 23) and Argon Preview (Sep 30 → Oct 13) cleared their gates in 13 to 21 days, pointing directly to Nov 11–21 for Antigravity Ultimate GA.
44 days elapsed since Grok 4.7 (Sep 21). xAI's linear step expansion (28d → 31d → 35d → 40d) hits 45 days on Nov 5, coinciding with new reasoning-effort quantization flags in xAI's router schema.
55 days of silence since V4.1 Flash (Sep 10)—surpassing all intra-family patch gaps (13d, 28d) and approaching the 68-day structural compilation window that preceded V4. MLA-v3 tensor-parallel patches merged in SGLang/vLLM.
Following GPT-6.1 Terra (Oct 26), OpenAI's trailing 18-day point-release cadence projects the next specialized scientific/coding checkpoint between Nov 13 and Nov 20 ahead of December Shipmas.
86% Conf
PRACTICAL DECISION TOOL · WORKLOAD ROUTER & API COST CALCULATOR
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Connect Coding Agents (Cursor, Claude Code, Windsurf) to Live Release Verdicts
Query live trend-slope release windows, 80/20 token routing math, and SWE-bench / GPQA leaderboards directly inside your IDE or automated CI router.
1. MODEL CONTEXT PROTOCOL (REMOTE MCP SERVER · LIVE)
Add https://modelrumors.ai/mcp to Claude Code, Cursor or Codex
Free, no key, Streamable HTTP. Two tools read the same live feed as this page: get_release_verdict(lab_or_model) and get_optimal_workload_stack(workload, monthly_tokens_millions).
# Claude Code
claude mcp add --transport http modelrumors https://modelrumors.ai/mcp
# Cursor: ~/.cursor/mcp.json (or .cursor/mcp.json in a project)
{ "mcpServers": { "modelrumors": { "url": "https://modelrumors.ai/mcp" } } }
# Codex: ~/.codex/config.toml
[mcp_servers.modelrumors]
url = "https://modelrumors.ai/mcp"
2. MACHINE-READABLE AGENT INDEX (/LLMS.TXT)
Zero-Latency Markdown Context for AI Search & RAG
Updated every 6 hours with current ADOPT NOW / HOLD verdicts, OLS interval slopes, and recommended inference endpoints.
