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DeepSeek RELEASE-CYCLE CLOCK · UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2026
When Will DeepSeek R3 / V4.5 (MIT Open Weights) Release? (DeepSeek Trend-Slope Forecast & Buyer's Verdict)
DeepSeek ships in 2-step point bursts (13d → 28d) followed by a ~65-day quiet period before its next architecture leap (mirroring the 68d pause before V4). At 55 days of silence, use V4.1 Flash ($0.22/1M) via API today, but hold permanent H200 GPU reservations for R3.
Buyer's Guide Verdict
HOLD GPU RESERVATIONS · R3 IN 10–20d
56d elapsed (86% of trend cycle)Trend-Slope Drop Window
Nov 14 – Nov 24, 2026 (10–20d away)
88% Confidence (65d Structural Wave)Naive Flat Average ETA
Oct 16, 2026 (Overdue on Burst Mean)
Flat mean: 36d vs Trend: 65d